Dr Winter examines the tensions between leadership and management, the structures that hold organisations together, and the ideas that shape organisational life. His work sits where governance, culture, and strategy converge.
In an uncertain employment landscape, context matters. Work serves the organisation, not individual agendas. When employees and managers act in good faith and meet their obligations while preparing for multiple futures, organisations become healthier, more stable, and more effective.
When we judge the principle 'be right a lot' on inputs rather than outcomes we can make rational choices about the future, secure in the knowledge that we have positioned rather than predicted our future, that our future is based on skill and not luck, and that we are people worth following.
Although we cannot know what tomorrow brings, we can use a pattern recognition approach to lower risk and devise stronger strategies. This is because while it is nearly impossible for us to predict one specific future, we can confidently position for multiple probable futures.
John Boyd’s OODA Loop—observe, orient, decide, act—highlights agility, context, and speed in decision-making. Challenging linear models, it shows why adaptive thinking is critical to leadership and organisational success.
Effective governance depends on capabilities shared by managers and informal leaders, recognising that risk, strategy, and culture are inseparable. This calls for rethinking traditional governance models—and the rise of the governor-manager.
Seeing organisations as complex social systems highlights governance as a cultural force. Responsibility extends beyond senior leaders to all managers, shaping behaviour through clear standards, accountability, and consistent leadership practice.
Governance allocates authority, responsibility, and decision rights. When it is remote or sealed off from scrutiny, power goes unchecked, accountability erodes, and resource decisions become arbitrary and subjective.
Reframing so-called “negative” people as pragmatists exposes unchecked optimism as a driver of the sunk cost fallacy—loss aversion, ego, and false hope. Drop the Kool-Aid, face reality, and better decisions come into view.
When managers fall into the sunk cost fallacy, more data rarely helps because the problem is emotional, not rational. Biases like ego, loss aversion, and optimism drive persistence. Awareness, governance, and decisive leadership matter more than analysis alone.
Ever get the sense that the meeting you are in is more about appearances than actions? Find that people keep on raising decision items that were already settled? Notice irrelevant issues dominate the agenda? Quite possibly an aspiring CIA operative is sabotaging your meeting.
