During the 1970s, renowned fighter pilot and military strategist John Boyd came to the conclusion that the attrition-firepower model of conflict was flawed. In short, the power relationship between two opposing forces had largely ceased to matter. In its place he proposed that what was of more importance was the way or speed with which an entity, be that an individual or group, reacted to a situation. This process or decision-making cycle he named the OODA Loop, which stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, and is conceptualised as a loop to reinforce the continuous nature of the decision-making process.
Expanding a little on each phase of the cycle and we have:
- Observe: The gathering or awareness raising element. It is important to note that the key to OODA is agility, therefore individuals or groups who spend too long observing — to derive a metaphor from Boyd's fighter pilot days — are likely to be shot down.
- Orientate: Ensuring that all observations are placed in a true context — while being aware context can shaft as more observations become available.
- Decide: Formulating the optimal course of action based on the observations at hand. This is often the most difficult part of the loop for groups or organisations due to a 'committee mindset'. That is when decisions take a disproportionately long period of time because people keep going around the room in the misguided belief that another pass will surface a decision.
- Act: The execution phase, for which it is critical that someone with the authority to empower action has been part of the loop. If a group or an individual decides without the authority to act, the process breaks down as everyone goes into another round of orientating and decision making with the authority empowered to determine action.
While the OODA Loop can be conceptualised as a circular and continuous process, in application it is a little more complex than it at first seems. This became apparent when, in 1996, John Boyd produced the only known pictorial representation of his loop.
The unfolding complexity of this version of the OODA Loop provides insights into some things which at face value seem 'simple'. The observe element is a microcosm of this given the range of inputs, and perhaps more importantly the way in which observation of the same phenomenon changes as orientation and decisions feedback to alter our perspective and thus observations.
At this point, things can get incredibly complex and require we deal with concepts such as intersubjectivity and temporality, the way in which these allow a deeper understanding of how to engage with the complexities of perpetually unfolding events, and how those events inextricably shape our understanding of the past and choices in the future. Simply put, the decisions you make today shape your understanding of the past, which in turn affects your future choices. For those happy to take a bit of a deep dive into this philosophical rabbit hole, see my article I and Me.
For these reasons, orientate becomes something of a pivot or central element of the OODA loop. This is because context or perspective is an overwhelming driver of observation. It is why when looking at highly emotional issues such as the Palestinian / Israeli conflict or the war in the Ukraine at the macro level, or the way in which an employee defends their work if they feel their job and ability to pay their rent is on the line, two people can look at an identical set of facts and draw radically different conclusions.
That an OODA Loop brings us to such existential ends is of no surprise given Boyd considered it to be something of a universal truth regarding survival and success. In an organisational context this is made manifest by the ways in which individuals and teams compete internally for resources, try to justify their existence during a restructure, or simply seek to enhance their standing (read achieve promotion) — often at the expense of a colleague or overall organisational success.
For decision makers, and particularly for boards who are trying to prioritise overall organisational success and health over individual or factional preference, this presents an opportunity. In that given the way in which all people complete — even those who despise competition will consistently justify their approach to work — the OODA Loop model helps leaders to think faster and make effective decisions more reliably. Something that enabled John Boyd to earn his nick name '"Forty Second Boyd" for his standing bet as an instructor pilot that beginning from a position of disadvantage, he could defeat any opposing pilot in air combat maneuvering in less than 40 seconds.'
Good night, and good luck.
