Everything published, most recent first.
When we judge the principle 'be right a lot' on inputs rather than outcomes we can make rational choices about the future, secure in the knowledge that we have positioned rather than predicted our future, that our future is based on skill and not luck, and that we are people worth following.
Good morning, and welcome to this edition of The Scribbler. Given it is Easter, I thought I would take a moment to revisit my first intellectual love, history, and examine
Although we cannot know what tomorrow brings, we can use a pattern recognition approach to lower risk and devise stronger strategies. This is because while it is nearly impossible for us to predict one specific future, we can confidently position for multiple probable futures.
John Boyd’s OODA Loop—observe, orient, decide, act—highlights agility, context, and speed in decision-making. Challenging linear models, it shows why adaptive thinking is critical to leadership and organisational success.
Effective governance depends on capabilities shared by managers and informal leaders, recognising that risk, strategy, and culture are inseparable. This calls for rethinking traditional governance models—and the rise of the governor-manager.
Seeing organisations as complex social systems highlights governance as a cultural force. Responsibility extends beyond senior leaders to all managers, shaping behaviour through clear standards, accountability, and consistent leadership practice.
Good evening, and welcome to the second edition of The Scribbler. A newsletter featuring an expanded set of articles addressing a key challenge facing organisations. This month I am taking
Governance allocates authority, responsibility, and decision rights. When it is remote or sealed off from scrutiny, power goes unchecked, accountability erodes, and resource decisions become arbitrary and subjective.
Reframing so-called “negative” people as pragmatists exposes unchecked optimism as a driver of the sunk cost fallacy—loss aversion, ego, and false hope. Drop the Kool-Aid, face reality, and better decisions come into view.
When managers fall into the sunk cost fallacy, more data rarely helps because the problem is emotional, not rational. Biases like ego, loss aversion, and optimism drive persistence. Awareness, governance, and decisive leadership matter more than analysis alone.
Ever get the sense that the meeting you are in is more about appearances than actions? Find that people keep on raising decision items that were already settled? Notice irrelevant issues dominate the agenda? Quite possibly an aspiring CIA operative is sabotaging your meeting.
Instead of a new column, this week I am surfacing something from the archives—a selection of articles about privacy.
A crisp document should be narrative and substantial, not slides. As Bezos argues, six-page memos beat PowerPoint, which sells rather than thinks. When meetings reward persuasion over reasoning, organisations get polished form but weak substance.
Organisations that are above average in their track record of developing leader-managers put an emphasis on creating challenging opportunities, not just for aspiring talent but for incumbent Line Managers who can too easily become stale.
By leveraging the management tool of control to harness the energy released by the leadership tool of motivation, the informal leadership networks that arise can handle the greater demands that result from the organisational change process.